Although I’m mostly talking to myself here and granted I have not seen the film, ever since “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” won at Toronto, I have been quietly predicting it to go all the way, much the same way Roger Ebert predicted “Argo” to win in its year by using the same deduction. In a completely unpredictable year, where the critics awards have been all over the place and still no consensus is drawn, I believe that Toronto win plus a SAG Ensemble nomination puts it in the right place. It’s only real competition, if you use a SAG Ensemble nomination as one of the perquisites to win the Best Picture Oscar are “Get Out” and “Lady Bird.” Both have been receiving some love, especially “Get Out.” People across the board seem to want to reward Jordan Peele for his outstanding work and if he were to win the Best Director Oscar, would become the first black director to do so. If Greta Gerwig were to win it, she would become only the second female to win the award. “The Big Sick” gets a nice bump here as does “Mudbound,” but with the latter coming from Netflix, it is a huge hurdle for it to jump as the Academy has been strong-footed against the streaming service and awarding its output.

“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” grabs three other nominations as well, with Frances McDormand now taking the lead in the Best Leading Actress race. I still believe Gary Oldman will win his first ever Oscar this year for his performance of Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour.” As much love as “Get Out” is getting I still do not see Daniel Kaluuya breaking through for the Oscar nomination. As much as the Academy loves Judi Dench, I also do not see her SAG nomination translating. Instead, Meryl Streep will likely take that fifth spot for her role in “The Post,” which got absolutely zero love, but will likely find its place at the Oscars instead. Willem Dafoe is really the only sweep this year for his supporting role in “The Florida Project” and definitely has the highest chance of taking the Supporting Oscar. The Best Supporting Actress category is a dead heat between Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”) and Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) with Hong Chau (“Downsizing”) likely grabbing that third spot which will probably be that film’s only nomination. My hope is still that Jessica Chastain can grab a spot for her role in “Molly’s Game” and for “Dunkirk” to find its place in the Oscars, either for Mark Rylance in supporting or Christopher Nolan in directing. It will still likely be in the Best Picture hunt, but without that SAG Ensemble nomination, its chances of winning are slightly altered.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

  • “The Big Sick”
  • “Get Out”
  • “Lady Bird”
  • “Mudbound”
  • “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

  • Timothee Chalamet – “Call Me by Your Name”
  • James Franco – “The Disaster Artist”
  • Daniel Kaluuya – “Get Out”
  • Gary Oldman – “Darkest Hour”
  • Denzel Washington – “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

  • Judi Dench – “Victoria & Abdul”
  • Sally Hawkins – “The Shape of Water”
  • Frances McDormand – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
  • Margot Robbie – “I, Tonya”
  • Saoirse Ronan – “Lady Bird”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Steve Carell – “Battle of the Sexes”
  • Willem Dafoe – “The Florida Project”
  • Woody Harrelson – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
  • Richard Jenkins – “The Shape of Water”
  • Sam Rockwell – “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

  • Mary J. Blige – “Mudbound”
  • Hong Chau – “Downsizing”
  • Holly Hunter – “The Big Sick”
  • Allison Janney – “I, Tonya”
  • Laurie Metcalf – “Lady Bird”

 

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

  • “Baby Driver”
  • “Dunkirk”
  • “Logan”
  • “War For The Planet Of The Apes”
  • “Wonder Woman”

 

TELEVISION

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

  • Benedict Cumberbatch – “Sherlock”
  • Jeff Daniels – “Godless”
  • Robert De Niro – “The Wizard of Lies”
  • Geoffrey Rush – “Genius”
  • Alexander Skarsgard – “Big Little Lies”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries

  • Laura Dern – “Big Little Lies”
  • Nicole Kidman – “Big Little Lies”
  • Jessica Lange – “Feud: Bette & Joan”
  • Susan Sarandon – “Feud: Bette & Joan”
  • Reese Witherspoon – “Big Little Lies”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

  • Jason Bateman – “Ozark”
  • Sterling K. Brown – “This Is Us”
  • Peter Dinklage – “Game of Thrones”
  • David Harbour – “Stranger Things”
  • Bob Odenkirk – “Better Call Saul”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

  • Millie Bobby Brown – “Stranger Things”
  • Claire Foy – “The Crown”
  • Laura Linney – “Ozark”
  • Elisabeth Moss – “The Handmaid’s Tale”
  • Robin Wright – “House of Cards”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Anthony Anderson – “Black-ish”
  • Aziz Ansari – “Master of None”
  • Larry David – “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
  • Sean Hayes – “Will & Grace”
  • William H. Macy – “Shameless”
  • Marc Maron – “GLOW”

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Uzo Aduba – “Orange Is the New Black”
  • Alison Brie – “GLOW”
  • Jane Fonda – “Grace and Frankie”
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus – “Veep”
  • Lily Tomlin – “Grace and Frankie”

 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

  • “The Crown”
  • “Game of Thrones”
  • “The Handmaid’s Tale”
  • “Stranger Things”
  • “This Is Us”

 

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

  • “Black-ish”
  • “Curb Your Enthusiasm”
  • “GLOW”
  • “Orange is the New Black”
  • “Veep”

 

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series

  • “Game of Thrones”
  • “GLOW”
  • “Homeland”
  • “Stranger Things”
  • “The Walking Dead”

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