The Rank (2016)

Once the nominees are announced on January 14th, 2016, and once I embark on my annual Oscar Challenge, I will use the below boxes to list a progression of what I think will win based on a number of factors (history, other award ceremonies, general consensus, etc.) and also a list of what I think should win. This is much like the ballot that Academy Award members would fill out.

BEST PICTURE

WILL WIN:

  1. “The Revenant”
  2. “The Big Short”
  3. “Spotlight”
  4. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  5. “The Martian”
  6. “Room”
  7. “Brooklyn”
  8. “Bridge Of Spies”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “The Revenant”
  2. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  3. “Spotlight”
  4. “The Big Short”
  5. “The Martian”
  6. “Room”
  7. “Brooklyn”
  8. “Bridge Of Spies”

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN:

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
  2. Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
  3. Matt Damon, “The Martian”
  4. Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
  5. Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant”
  2. Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
  3. Matt Damon, “The Martian”
  4. Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
  5. Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

WILL WIN:

  1. Brie Larson, “Room”
  2. Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
  3. Cate Blanchett, Carol”
  4. Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
  5. Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. Brie Larson, “Room”
  2. Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
  3. Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
  4. Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
  5. Cate Blanchett, Carol”

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN:

  1. Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
  2. Mark Rylance, “Bridge Of Spies”
  3. Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
  4. Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
  5. Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
  2. Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
  3. Mark Rylance, “Bridge Of Spies”
  4. Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
  5. Christian Bale, “The Big Short”

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

WILL WIN:

  1. Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
  2. Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
  3. Rooney Mara, “Carol”
  4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
  5. Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl”
  2. Kate Winslet, “Steve Jobs”
  3. Rooney Mara, “Carol”
  4. Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
  5. Rachel McAdams, “Spotlight”

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

WILL WIN:

  1. “Inside Out”
  2. “Anomalisa”
  3. “Shaun The Sheep Movie”
  4. “When Marnie Was There”
  5. “Boy and the World”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Inside Out”
  2. “Anomalisa”
  3. “When Marnie Was There”
  4. “Boy and the World”
  5. “Shaun The Sheep Movie”

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

WILL WIN:

  1. Emmanuel Lubezki, “The Revenant”
  2. John Seale, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  3. Roger Deakins, “Sicario”
  4. Ed Lachman, “Carol”
  5. Robert Richardson, “The Hateful Eight”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. Emmanuel Lubezki, “The Revenant”
  2. Roger Deakins, “Sicario”
  3. John Seale, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  4. Robert Richardson, “The Hateful Eight”
  5. Ed Lachman, “Carol”

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

WILL WIN:

  1. “Cinderella,” Sandy Powell
  2. “Mad Max: Fury Road,” Jenny Beavan
  3. “Carol,” Sandy Powell
  4. “The Danish Girl,” Paco Delgado
  5. “The Revenant,” Jacqueline West
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Cinderella,” Sandy Powell
  2. “The Revenant,” Jacqueline West
  3. “Mad Max: Fury Road,” Jenny Beavan
  4. “Carol,” Sandy Powell
  5. “The Danish Girl,” Paco Delgado

BEST DIRECTING

WILL WIN:

  1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “The Revenant”
  2. George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  3. Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”
  4. Adam McKay, “The Big Short”
  5. Lenny Abrahamson, “Room”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “The Revenant”
  2. George Miller, “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  3. Tom McCarthy, “Spotlight”
  4. Adam McKay, “The Big Short”
  5. Lenny Abrahamson, “Room”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

WILL WIN:

  1. “Amy”
  2. “The Look Of Silence”
  3. “Cartel Land”
  4. “What Happened, Miss Simone?”
  5. “Winter On Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Amy”
  2. “The Look Of Silence”
  3. “What Happened, Miss Simone?”
  4. “Cartel Land”
  5. “Winter On Fire: Ukraine’s Fight For Freedom”

BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)

WILL WIN:

  1. ***
  2. ***
  3. ***
  4. ***
  5. ***
SHOULD WIN:

  1. ***
  2. ***
  3. ***
  4. ***
  5. ***

BEST FILM EDITING

WILL WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road,” Margaret Sixel
  2. “The Big Short,” Hank Corwin
  3. “The Revenant,” Stephen Mirrione
  4. “Spotlight,” Tom McArdle
  5. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” Mary Jo Markey & Maryann Brandon
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road,” Margaret Sixel
  2. “The Revenant,” Stephen Mirrione
  3. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” Mary Jo Markey & Maryann Brandon
  4. “The Big Short,” Hank Corwin
  5. “Spotlight,” Tom McArdle

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

WILL WIN:

  1. “Son Of Saul”
  2. “Mustang”
  3. “A War”
  4. “Embrace Of The Serpent”
  5. “Theeb”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Son Of Saul”
  2. “Mustang”
  3. “Embrace Of The Serpent”
  4. “Theeb”
  5. “A War”

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

WILL WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “The Revenant”
  3. “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “The Revenant”
  3. “The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared”

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

WILL WIN:

  1. “The Hateful Eight,” Ennio Morricone
  2. “Carol,” Carter Burwell
  3. “Sicario,” Jóhann Jóhannsson
  4. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” John Williams
  5. “Bridge Of Spies,” Thomas Newman
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” John Williams
  2. “Sicario,” Jóhann Jóhannsson
  3. “The Hateful Eight,” Ennio Morricone
  4. “Carol,” Carter Burwell
  5. “Bridge Of Spies,” Thomas Newman

BEST MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

WILL WIN:

  1. “Til It Happens To You” by Lady Gaga (“The Hunting Ground”)
  2. “Writings On The Wall” by Sam Smith (“Spectre”)
  3. “Earned It” by The Weeknd (“Fifty Shades of Grey”)
  4. “Simple Song #3” by David Lang (“Youth”)
  5. “Manta Ray” by J. Ralph and Antony (“Racing Extinction”)
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Earned It” by The Weeknd (“Fifty Shades of Grey”)
  2. “Writings On The Wall” by Sam Smith (“Spectre”)
  3. “Til It Happens To You” by Lady Gaga (“The Hunting Ground”)
  4. “Manta Ray” by J. Ralph and Antony (“Racing Extinction”)
  5. “Simple Song #3” by David Lang (“Youth”)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

WILL WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “Bridge Of Spies”
  3. “The Revenant”
  4. “The Martian”
  5. “The Danish Girl”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “The Martian”
  3. “The Revenant”
  4. “The Danish Girl”
  5. “Bridge Of Spies”

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

WILL WIN:

  1. “Sanjay’s Super Team”
  2. “World Of Tomorrow”
  3. “Prologue”
  4. “A Bear Story”
  5. “We Can’t Live Without Cosmos”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Sanjay’s Super Team”
  2. “A Bear Story”
  3. “World Of Tomorrow”
  4. “Prologue”
  5. “We Can’t Live Without Cosmos”

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

WILL WIN:

  1. “Ave Maria”
  2. “Shok”
  3. “Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)”
  4. “Stutterer”
  5. “Day One”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)”
  2. “Stutterer”
  3. “Day One”
  4. “Shok”
  5. “Ave Maria”

BEST SOUND EDITING

WILL WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “The Revenant”
  3. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
  4. “The Martian”
  5. “Sicario”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
  3. “The Martian”
  4. “The Revenant”
  5. “Sicario”

BEST SOUND MIXING

WILL WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “The Revenant”
  3. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
  4. “The Martian”
  5. “Bridge Of Spies”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
  3. “The Martian”
  4. “The Revenant”
  5. “Bridge Of Spies”

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

WILL WIN:

  1. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  2. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
  3. “The Revenant”
  4. “Ex Machina”
  5. “The Martian”
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”
  2. “Mad Max: Fury Road”
  3. “The Revenant”
  4. “Ex Machina”
  5. “The Martian”

BEST WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

WILL WIN:

  1. “The Big Short,” Adam McKay & Charles Rudolph
  2. “Room,” Emma Donoghue
  3. “Carol,” Phyllis Nagy
  4. “The Martian,” Drew Goddard
  5. “Brooklyn,” Nick Hornby
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Room,” Emma Donoghue
  2. “The Big Short,” Adam McKay & Charles Rudolph
  3. “The Martian,” Drew Goddard
  4. “Brooklyn,” Nick Hornby
  5. “Carol,” Phyllis Nagy

BEST WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

WILL WIN:

  1. “Spotlight,” Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer
  2. “Inside Out,” Pete Docter, Josh Cooley, & Meg LeFauve
  3. “Straight Outta Compton,” Jonathan Herman & Andrea Berloff
  4. “Ex Machina,” Alex Garland
  5. “Bridge Of Spies,” Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, & Joel Coen
SHOULD WIN:

  1. “Ex Machina,” Alex Garland
  2. “Straight Outta Compton,” Jonathan Herman & Andrea Berloff
  3. “Spotlight,” Tom McCarthy & Josh Singer
  4. “Inside Out,” Pete Docter, Josh Cooley, & Meg LeFauve
  5. “Bridge Of Spies,” Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, & Joel Coen